A Wall Street Analyst Just Raised the Odds on Musk’s Boldest Move to 90 Percent

Elon Musk hinted on an earnings call that the time has come for a huge combination move at SpaceX and Tesla.

On the heels of Tesla’s flying roadster, both companies have now quietly formed special committees to study Musk’s next idea.

Asset Managers have been tracking the not so subtle signal for months and one new number on the odds should make every shareholder pay attention.

The Committee Musk Isn't Allowed In

Musk made the comments during SpaceX's quarterly earnings call on October 20, 2026.

He told investors a combination "would be a good idea."

Then he drew a hard line.

"I don't think we should assume that a merger is a certainty," Musk said.

He explained why he is staying out of the room.

Both boards formed special committees at shareholders' request to evaluate whether to combine the two companies.

Musk cannot sit in on those discussions because he runs both businesses.

That makes him a conflicted party, as he put it himself.

The same crowd that melted down over the Twitter takeover and then over DOGE is already furious about this one too.

They do not get a vote.

Two independent boards do, and that is exactly how it should work.

Musk has been circling this idea for months, pointing to growing overlap between the two companies in chip design, robotics, and connectivity.

The clearest example is Terafab, a semiconductor manufacturing plant the two companies are building together.

Wall Street noticed.

Gene Munster at Deepwater Asset Management raised his own forecast from 80 percent to 90 percent and said he does not see the combination taking more than a few years.

"I'm raising that to 90%," Munster said.

Barclays has gone on record too, flagging the possibility of a deal before the end of the year and citing the same public comments Musk keeps making.

What a Three Trillion Dollar Combination Would Actually Mean

SpaceX shares jumped as much as 8 percent in extended trading once Musk's comments crossed the wire.

A combined SpaceX-Tesla would carry a market value somewhere between three point two and three point five trillion dollars based on current figures.

That would make it one of the largest companies on earth.

It would still trail Nvidia, which sits above five trillion dollars.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has made noise about Musk's companies before.

He will not have much say this time.

Tesla and SpaceX have both relocated their headquarters to Texas, putting them well outside his jurisdiction.

Why Moving to Texas Just Paid Off Again

Now Musk is quietly building a company that could rival Nvidia in size, run electric cars and rockets under one roof, and do it all from Texas instead of California.

A combined SpaceX-Tesla would mean less bureaucratic drag on two of America's most important industries, not more.

It would mean the rocket company putting Americans back in orbit and the car company building vehicles in Texas answer to one set of shareholders instead of two separate regulatory gauntlets.

Musk has already said he wants every American child to receive a SpaceX share.

A merger would hand millions of ordinary families a stake in exactly the kind of company the entrenched California political class has tried for a decade to strangle.

No other company on earth builds reusable rockets and mass market cars under one roof.

That combination now sits almost entirely beyond Sacramento's reach.

Sources:

• Bob Hoge, "One Company to Rule Them All? Elon Musk Floats Fascinating Possible Future for SpaceX-Tesla," RedState, October 21, 2026.
• Yahoo Finance, "Barclays Says a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Could Be Announced Before December," Yahoo Finance, October 14, 2026.
• Parameter, "Gene Munster Increases Tesla-SpaceX Merger Probability to 90 Following Earnings Commentary," Parameter, July 23, 2026.